Expert Knowledge
25+ years building and investing in technology companies(A founder's framework from operating and investing across the 12+ companies I've built and invested in through Scalable Ventures, checked against 2024-2026 research from Menlo Ventures, MIT, Gartner, S&P Global, McKinsey and others)- Buying is now the norm. Enterprises went from building 47% of AI solutions in-house in 2024 (Menlo Ventures, 2024) to buying 76% of use cases in 2025.
- Bought tools ship more often. External partnerships reached deployment about 67% of the time versus about 33% for internal builds (MIT NANDA, 2025). Those outcomes are self-reported and correlational.
- Most AI efforts stall either way. 42% of companies abandoned most of their AI initiatives before production in 2025, up from 17% a year earlier (S&P Global Market Intelligence, 2025).
- Model cost rarely decides it. The price of GPT-3.5-level performance fell more than 280-fold in about two years (Stanford HAI AI Index, 2025). In my worked example, API spend is about 2% of a build's 3-year cost. People are almost all the rest.
- Build only what differentiates. Score the decision, model risk-adjusted cost, and keep an exit path for anything you buy.
What Does "Build vs Buy" Mean for AI in 2026?
Build, Buy, Boost, Partner: The Four Real Options
| Option | What it means | What you own | Typical example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Use a vendor's finished product, or the AI built into tools you already pay for | Configuration and your usage data | Coding assistant, meeting notes, help-desk AI |
| Boost | Buy a model or platform, then improve it with your data through retrieval (RAG), fine-tuning, prompts and workflow | Your data layer, prompts, evaluations, the glue code | Support assistant grounded in your help center |
| Partner | Co-develop with a vendor or specialist firm that brings the team and tooling | Whatever the contract says | Document-extraction pipeline built with a specialist |
| Build | Your team designs, trains or orchestrates the models and owns the stack and roadmap | Everything, including the maintenance | AI that is the reason customers buy your product |
Why AI Changes the Old Software Build vs Buy Math
What Does the Data Say: Are Companies Building or Buying AI?
| Year | Built in-house | Bought from vendors | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | about 20% (implied) | 80% | Menlo Ventures, 2024 report |
| 2024 | 47% | 53% | Menlo Ventures, 2024 report |
| 2025 | about 24% (implied) | 76% | Menlo Ventures, 2025 report |
Bought vs Built: Which Succeeds More Often?
Why AI Project Failure-Rate Numbers Disagree
| Source | What it measures | Number | Type of evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIT NANDA, 2025 | Custom enterprise GenAI tools reaching production | 5% | Interviews; "directionally accurate" |
| MIT NANDA, 2025 | Organizations getting zero return on GenAI | 95% | Interviews; directional |
| MIT NANDA, 2025 | Deployment rate, external partnership vs internal build | ~67% vs ~33% | Self-reported; correlational |
| S&P Global, 2025 | Companies abandoning most AI initiatives before production | 42% (up from 17%) | Survey, n=1,006 |
| S&P Global, 2025 | Projects scrapped between proof of concept and broad adoption | 46% | Survey, n=1,006 |
| Gartner, 2024 | GenAI projects abandoned after proof of concept by end of 2025 | At least 30% | Prediction |
| Gartner, 2025 | Agentic AI projects canceled by end of 2027 | Over 40% | Prediction |
| RAND, 2024 | AI projects that fail, vs non-AI IT projects | Over 80% (2x) | Prior estimates RAND cites |
| IBM, 2025 | AI initiatives that delivered expected ROI | 25% | CEO survey, n=2,000 |
| Menlo Ventures, 2025 | Bought AI deals that reach production | 47% (vs 25% for SaaS) | Survey, n=495 |
When Should You Buy AI?
- The capability is a commodity. Writing help, meeting notes, transcription and generic chat are solved problems (here are the tools I actually use). A simple test: if a competitor added this exact capability tomorrow, would your customers switch? If not, it's a supporting function. Buy it.
- Speed matters more than control. If competitors are already shipping AI features, a quarter matters. Bought tools skip the infrastructure, evaluation and hiring work that consumes the first months of a build, which is Menlo's explanation for the swing to buying.
- You don't have an ML or LLMOps bench. The US median wage for computer and information research scientists was $140,300 in May 2025, and employment is projected to grow 22% from 2025 to 2035 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics). That excludes equity, benefits and hub-market premiums. If you have no technical leader who can evaluate models, a fractional CTO is a cheaper first step than a hire.
- A proven vendor has already seen your edge cases. A vendor serving thousands of customers has met failure modes you'd take years to encounter, and debugged them in production.
- The AI lives inside a system you already use. If your CRM or help desk ships the capability natively, the integration is done. a16z's 2026 CIO survey found 65% of large enterprises prefer incumbent solutions when available.
When Should You Build Custom AI?
- You have a proprietary data advantage. Data that is unique, growing and cleared for use (transaction histories, workflow outcomes, domain labels) can make a model beat any generic tool. Count the data your product will generate: at 100 customers you may not have enough, at 10,000 you may have a moat.
- AI is your core differentiator. If customers choose you because of the AI, you need full control of its behavior, quality and roadmap. Otherwise your roadmap is hostage to a vendor's.
- Regulation or data residency requires control. Healthcare, financial services and defense buyers often require self-hosting, audit trails or explainability that a vendor can't provide.
- Your volume makes per-call fees dominate. This is the weakest reason for most startups, and it weakens every year. Stanford's AI Index 2025 found the cost of GPT-3.5-level performance "dropped from $20 per million tokens in November 2022 to just $0.07 per million tokens by October 2024" (the price of hitting a fixed benchmark score, not one model's price history). Epoch AI (2025) estimates prices for a given capability fall 9x to 900x per year depending on the task, though it cautions the fastest drops may not persist. Anthropic's price list shows its top tier going from $15 / $75 per million input / output tokens (Claude Opus 4 and 4.1) to $4 / $20 (Opus 5.5), with a 50% Batch API discount. Run the sensitivity in the TCO section before you rely on this reason.
What About the Middle Path: Boost or Partner?
RAG vs Fine-Tuning: Which Should You Try First?
- Prompting and workflow design. Structured prompts and tool calls solve more than founders expect. Start here, and build an evaluation set: real examples with known good answers you re-run whenever something changes.
- Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Use RAG when the model needs your facts: help-center articles, contracts, tickets, product data. It keeps data in your systems, lets the model cite sources and updates when your documents do.
- Fine-tuning. Fine-tune when you need consistent behavior rather than knowledge: a fixed output format, a house tone, or a narrow task you want done faster or more cheaply on a smaller model. It needs good labeled examples and must be redone when you change base models.
Build, Buy, or Partner: When Does Partnering Make Sense?
How Do You Run a Build vs Buy Analysis for AI?
- Define the problem and the metric. Write one sentence on the business problem and the number that will tell you it's solved. RAND's top root cause of AI failure is misunderstanding the problem, so this step does the most work.
- Score the decision on the weighted scorecard. Rate the eight criteria in the scorecard, apply your stage's weights and read the result.
- Model a risk-adjusted 3-year total cost of ownership. Count people, usage and fees for every option, then divide by the probability each one actually reaches deployment.
- Choose the path and design your exit. Pick buy, boost, partner or build, then write down how you'd leave: data export, contract terms and the evaluation set you own.
- Set a review date. Revisit the decision every year or at each funding stage, because prices, vendors and your own data all change.
The 30-Second Version
The Weighted Build vs Buy AI Scorecard
| Criterion | What a "5" looks like | Seed weight | Series A weight | Series B+ weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic differentiation | Customers buy because of this AI | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proprietary data advantage | Unique, growing, rights-cleared data | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Time-to-value tolerance | You can wait 6+ months for results | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| In-house ML / LLMOps capacity | A dedicated team with evaluation and monitoring | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Volume and unit economics | Usage high enough that per-call fees dominate cost | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Regulatory and data-residency control | You must self-host or audit model behavior | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Vendor-market maturity (inverse) | No credible vendor exists | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Lock-in risk if bought | A vendor would hold your core workflow hostage | 5% | 5% | 5% |
- A seed-stage SaaS adding AI support-ticket triage. Differentiation 2, data 3, time tolerance 1, team capacity 1, volume 1, regulatory 2, vendor maturity 1, lock-in 2. Weighted with seed weights: 0.50 + 0.60 + 0.15 + 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.20 + 0.05 + 0.10 = 1.80. Buy.
- A Series A company whose product is an AI risk-scoring engine trained on its own customer outcomes. Differentiation 5, data 4, time tolerance 3, team capacity 3, volume 3, regulatory 3, vendor maturity 4, lock-in 4. Weighted with Series A weights: 1.25 + 0.80 + 0.45 + 0.30 + 0.30 + 0.30 + 0.20 + 0.20 = 3.80. Build on foundation models.
What Does Building AI Really Cost? A 3-Year TCO Worked Example
| Line item | Build | Buy | Input source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engineer base salary | $140,300 | $140,300 | BLS median, May 2025 |
| Fully loaded cost per engineer-year (×1.3) | $182,390 | $182,390 | Assumption |
| Engineering effort over 3 years | 4 engineer-years = $729,560 | 0.25 engineer-years = $45,598 | Assumption |
| Model API usage ($400/month × 36) | $14,400 | Included in fee | Anthropic list price, Opus 5.5 ($4 / $20 per million tokens); volume is an assumption |
| Vendor subscription ($2,000/month × 36) | n/a | $72,000 | Placeholder |
| 3-year nominal TCO | $743,960 | $117,598 | Calculated |
| Probability of reaching deployment | ~33% | ~67% | MIT NANDA, 2025 (correlational) |
| Risk-adjusted cost per successful deployment | ≈ $2.25M | ≈ $175,500 | TCO ÷ probability |
- Model cost is about 2% of the build's 3-year TCO. People, evaluations and maintenance are the rest. At startup volumes, "build to save on API fees" rarely survives a spreadsheet.
- The nominal gap is about 6x. Risk-adjusted, it's about 13x. Most build vs buy analyses ignore the probability of failure, the biggest variable in the decision.
- Volume changes the picture. At 100 times the usage (5 billion input and 1 billion output tokens a month), API spend at the same list price reaches $40,000 a month, or $1.44 million over three years, and becomes the largest line. Batch pricing halves that for work that isn't real-time, and a vendor priced per action would scale its fee too. That's when the volume case for building or self-hosting becomes real.
- Treat MIT's ratios as a stress test, not a forecast. If you can't argue why you'd beat a 33% deployment rate, budget as if you won't.
| Cost factor | Build | Buy |
|---|---|---|
| Upfront cost | High: mostly engineering time | Low: setup and integration |
| Ongoing cost | Engineers for evaluation, monitoring and upgrades | Subscription or usage fees that scale with use |
| Time to value | Months | Days to weeks |
| Opportunity cost | High: your best engineers off the core product | Low |
| Switching cost | Low: you own it | Moderate to high: data, workflows and contracts |
| Customization | Unlimited | Limited to what the vendor exposes |
| Model risk | Yours | Shared with the vendor |
Build vs Buy by Use Case: A Decision Matrix
| Use case | Default | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Coding assistants | Buy | Commodity, improving monthly, and not what customers pay you for |
| Meeting notes, writing, internal productivity | Buy | Solved problems with mature vendors |
| Customer-support chatbot or ticket triage | Buy, then boost with RAG on your help center | Vendors are mature. Your knowledge base is the differentiator |
| Sales and marketing content, AI SDR outreach | Buy | Supporting function. Differentiation is your offer, not the tool |
| Voice agents for support or scheduling | Buy, unless voice is your product | Hard to build well; vendors have the telephony and latency work done |
| Document extraction and back-office automation | Boost or partner | Your documents and rules matter, but the base capability is sold widely |
| Agents inside systems of record (CRM, ITSM, ERP) | Buy embedded | Integration depth lives with the platform vendor |
| AI infrastructure: evaluation, observability, gateways | Buy | Not a differentiator at startup scale |
| Core product intelligence customers pay for | Build on foundation models | Differentiator plus proprietary data |
| Regulated decisioning in health or finance | Build or partner, self-hosted | Control, auditability and data residency |
Should You Build or Buy AI Agents?
- Buy agents embedded in your systems of record. The agent in your CRM or help desk already has the permissions, data and audit trail.
- Build orchestration only for workflows that are core to your product. If the agent is the product, own the planning logic, tool permissions and evaluation, and buy the underlying models.
- Diligence the vendor hard. Given Gartner's "agent washing" estimate, ask for production references, failure handling, cost per completed task and what happens when the agent is wrong. My AI due diligence framework for evaluating AI startups works just as well on vendors.
How Do You Avoid Vendor Lock-In When You Buy?
- Data export. Confirm in writing that you can export your data, conversation logs and configurations in a usable format.
- A model-agnostic layer. Route model calls through your own thin abstraction so a provider change is a configuration change, not a rewrite.
- Training rights. Get a clear contract term on whether the vendor may train on your data, and what happens to it when you leave.
- Your own evaluation set. Keep the test cases and scores in your systems. They let you compare a new vendor or model in days.
- Pricing protection. Cap price increases at renewal, and understand how per-action pricing behaves at higher volume.
Buy Now, Build Later: Capture the Data While You Learn
How Should Your Build vs Buy Strategy Change as You Scale?
- Seed stage: buy almost everything. Your engineering team is tiny and should focus on the core product.
- Series A: buy supporting AI and start building core AI if it's your differentiator. You now have more data and some engineering capacity.
- Series B and beyond: build what's strategic, buy what's operational. Vendor dependency on core capabilities becomes a liability, and volume may justify owning more of the stack.
Sources
- Menlo Ventures, 2025: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise, December 2025
- Menlo Ventures, 2024: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise, November 2024
- Menlo Ventures, 2025 Mid-Year LLM Market Update, July 2025
- MIT NANDA, The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025, July 2025 (hosted copy of the full report)
- MIT Sloan, Buy, boost, or build? Choose your path to generative AI, September 2025
- Gartner, GenAI projects abandoned after proof of concept prediction, July 2024
- Gartner, Agentic AI project cancellation prediction, June 2025
- S&P Global Market Intelligence (451 Research), Generative AI experiences rapid adoption, but with mixed outcomes, May 2025
- RAND, The Root Causes of Failure for Artificial Intelligence Projects and How They Can Succeed, August 2024
- IBM Institute for Business Value, IBM Study: CEOs Double Down on AI While Navigating Enterprise Hurdles, May 2025
- McKinsey, The state of AI in 2025: Agents, innovation, and transformation, November 2025
- Stanford HAI, AI Index 2025: State of AI in 10 Charts, April 2025, and the 2025 AI Index Report
- Epoch AI, LLM inference prices have fallen rapidly but unequally across tasks, March 2025
- Anthropic, Claude pricing, accessed October 16, 2026
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook: Computer and Information Research Scientists, updated August 2026
- a16z, Leaders, gainers and unexpected winners in the enterprise AI arms race, January 2026
- a16z, How 100 Enterprise CIOs Are Building and Buying Gen AI in 2025, June 2025
Related Reading
- AI Tools Running My Companies - The tools we actually buy and use day to day
- AI Strategy for CEOs - Pick the AI priorities that move business metrics
- What Is a Fractional CTO? - Technical leadership when you don't have an ML bench
- AI Due Diligence: How I Evaluate AI Startups - The questions to ask any AI company, including your vendors
- When to Outsource - The core-versus-context rule behind this framework
- B2B SaaS Scaling Playbook - Scaling systems from $1M to $10M ARR
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